Recursion Burned Through $197 Million in Six Months – and the Model Still Rates It Sell After a Volatile October

Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biotech that uses AI and automated lab work to find drug candidates, and the first thing its numbers show is cash burn. Cash fell to $556.8 million at June 30 from $753.9 million at the end of 2025, second-quarter revenue was just $7.7 million, and the weighted share count rose about 28% in a year. The shares closed at $4.36 on Friday, October 9, up 10.4% on the day after a week of sharp swings. This Recursion Pharmaceuticals stock analysis, based on Yahoo Finance data as of October 10, 2026, explains why the scoring model rates the stock a Sell, and what could change the picture.

What Is Happening With the Stock Price

At $4.36, Recursion sits in the lower end of its two-year range of $2.93 to $10.53 on weekly closes – about 49% above the low but 59% below the high. Daily closes stretch the range slightly, from $2.84 on March 30, 2026 to $10.87 in February 2025. The stock is up 6.6% this year from $4.09 at the end of 2025. October has been volatile: the shares jumped 16.0% on Monday, October 5, fell back to $3.95 by Thursday, then rose 10.4% on Friday. Moves of that size are common for small biotechs and can reverse just as quickly. In September, Recursion amended its data agreement with Tempus AI, replacing discretionary license fees that could have totalled $84 million over two years with committed payments of $42 million over three years, and licensed its RNA foundation model to Tempus.

Quality: Is This a Financially Sound Business?

Quality scores 25/100, right at the floor below which the model issues an automatic Sell; today’s Sell comes from the low overall score instead. There is no profitable core business yet: earnings per share are -$1.00, return on assets is -27.3% and return on equity -56.6%. The -1,759.7% operating margin is the second-quarter figure, when an operating loss of about $135 million came against $7.7 million of revenue. Yahoo’s 0.0% gross margin is not meaningful for a company whose revenue comes from research partnerships rather than product sales.

Cash burn is the central risk in this Recursion Pharmaceuticals stock analysis. Yahoo’s trailing free cash flow of -$219 million, a -9.4% yield, looks light: Yahoo’s own cash flow data show an operating cash outflow of about $350 million over the twelve months to June, and cash fell by $197 million in the first half of 2026 alone. The company has cut costs – second-quarter R&D fell to $89.6 million from $128.6 million, and it lowered its 2026 cash operating expense guidance to under $375 million – and it says cash should last into early 2028 without new financing. The balance sheet is liquid, with a current ratio of 5.03 and debt-to-equity of 0.07, but the share count has grown to fund the losses: the weighted average reached 532.5 million in the second quarter, from 417.4 million a year earlier.

Growth: Does This Company Have Real Upside?

Growth scores 15/100. Yahoo’s -60.1% revenue growth figure is the second quarter compared with the same quarter of 2025 ($7.7 million against $19.2 million), not a trailing-twelve-month change; Recursion attributed the fall to lower Roche and Genentech revenue after project phases were completed a year earlier. The 23.3% compound growth rate Yahoo labels as five-year covers 2022 to 2025, when annual revenue rose from about $40 million to about $74 million. Collaboration revenue of this kind is lumpy and depends on partners’ milestones: Recursion has received $216 million from Roche and Genentech and $134 million from Sanofi to date.

The real growth case is the pipeline, which the metrics cannot score. Further Phase 2 data for REC-4881 in familial adenomatous polyposis are due on November 2, 2026, with an update on its registrational path expected in the second half; more data for REC-1245 are due this half, and early data for REC-617 and REC-3565 are expected in the first half of 2027. Positive results could change the outlook quickly; disappointing ones could do the same in the other direction.

Opportunity: Is Now a Good Time to Enter?

Opportunity scores 22/100. With no earnings there is no P/E, EV/EBITDA is negative at -3.47, and the EV/Revenue multiple of 29.82 is high for revenue that fell in the latest quarter. Price-to-book is 2.55. At a $2.34 billion market value against $556.8 million of cash at June 30, investors are paying roughly $1.8 billion for the pipeline and the platform. The low position in the two-year range does not lift the score, because the model only rewards a depressed price when Quality is solid. Further share issuance remains a risk if the cash runway shortens or programmes need more funding.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Stock Analysis: The Bottom Line

Our Recursion Pharmaceuticals stock analysis finds a well-funded but loss-making research company whose value depends on clinical results the numbers cannot yet capture. Quality is 25/100, Growth 15/100 and Opportunity 22/100, for a recommendation score of 21/100 and a Sell signal, unchanged from our August review. What could go right: positive REC-4881 data in November, new partnership milestones, and lower spending that stretches the runway. What could go wrong: weak data, continued dilution and revenue that stays small. Buy / Hold / Sell reflects StreetBriefs’ quantitative scoring model (Quality, Growth, Opportunity), a data-driven signal for further research, not a personalized recommendation to transact.